Red Alert 1895: Chapter 640 Odds? Down

While the Japanese are deducing the chances of winning this decisive battle, Taiwan has also begun to deduce how much the decisive battle against Japan will have. Especially the strength of the two sides in this decisive battle, this is a very important reference. Both of them have their own advantages. Taiwan has the "hardware" advantage, that is, the battleships are obviously much better than Japan's, and the parameters at the battleship level are also much better. However, Japan clearly has an advantage in "software". The quality of Japanese sailors is obviously very good. So now they are a very unique situation, so everyone has to start budgeting the real outcome.

"According to our intelligence, the Japanese have already united with the Americans. Most likely, they will collude with us and have a decisive battle with us. This time we will face an enemy with eight battleships. Their battleship soldiers are better than ours. Many, their soldiers are obviously more experienced than ours. Although the level of training may be the same, we are obviously not as good as them in terms of pressure resistance. They are all naval countries with many years of naval history. Our navy has only been established for a few years. In a few years, many naval officers and soldiers have no real combat experience. In terms of combat experience, it is obviously much worse than that of the Japanese and American navies. If we directly engage in a decisive battle with them, what chance do we have of winning?"

Chief of Naval Staff Qiu Baoren is asking the Navy's staff to conduct a deduction, and then estimate the odds of winning this strategic decisive battle with the Japanese and the Americans. This time we must ensure the victory of the Taiwan army. If we can defeat the American and Japanese navies this time, then this time it means that we can control the sea along the coast of China. It's also just a matter of time. Therefore, this command of the sea is an important means to cut off the supplies of the Eight-Power Allied Forces and their retreat. is a vital means. So this decisive battle can only succeed, not fail. Once failed. This battle situation is also very dangerous for Taiwan's war situation.

"Chief of Staff Qiu is here, and this time we have a 60% chance of winning. This is based on the premise that we dispatch sword-class battleships and submarines, so we can have such a chance of winning." A chief staff officer said.

"It's only 60%?" Qiu Baoren asked doubtfully.

And the chief staff officer replied: "Chief of Staff Qiu, in fact, if it is true, it may not be so low. Because according to our usual habit, it is necessary to calculate the combat power of the enemy according to the most powerful method. Our side has to calculate the combat power according to the most unfavorable situation possible, so our calculation is only about 60%."

According to Wang Guorui's guidance to the staff of the staff department, that is, the enemy must be calculated according to the highest combat effectiveness. As for the own side, it must be calculated according to the lowest combat power. The core meaning of this sentence is to take the initiative to hang a "pig's foot halo" on the enemy, and then hang a "bad luck halo" on yourself, calculate the enemy's actual combat power as 200%, and take your own side Instead, the combat effectiveness was reduced to 60%. Overestimate the enemy as much as possible, but underestimate yourself as much as possible. This is Wang Guorui's guidance to the staff department.

The reason why Wang Guorui did this was to allow those staff officers to calculate as much as possible and ensure that the staff officers of the Taiwan army were cautious. Because Wang Guorui once watched Japan go to war against the Americans during World War II, they had a very ridiculous deduction. The Japanese calculate the combat effectiveness of the Americans at the lowest level, but they calculate their own combat effectiveness at the highest level. As a result, they actually calculated that they could easily defeat the Americans, and then they all took the initiative to launch the Pacific War. As a result, they were severely taught by the Americans.

Such an idiot calculation method. He actually seriously underestimated the enemy's combat power, but seriously overestimated his own. Such a staff officer is not helping himself, but pitting the entire army! That's why Wang Guorui's guidance to those staff officers was to overestimate the enemy's combat power as much as possible, and then underestimate his own combat power as much as possible. Only in this way can the calculation be considered the most reasonable. Although this may not be the case in fact, the enemy's combat effectiveness cannot be absolutely maintained at the highest level, and his own combat effectiveness is not as weak as imagined. But this is to ensure the prudence of the staff and the absolute combat effectiveness. So as not to be disturbed by some so-called accidents. This is the only way to overestimate the enemy's combat power as much as possible and underestimate one's own combat power. Only in this way can we ensure that we are not afraid of any accidents.

Hearing this, Qiu Baoren finally nodded his head, because according to this analysis, in fact, if he can get a 60% chance of winning in the Taiwan army, he can often get at least 80% or even 90% chance of winning in the deduction of other armies. Chengdu is possible. According to the army's previous deduction, if there is a 60% chance of winning, the final victory will definitely belong to the Taiwan army. This harsh and abnormal deduction method is simply deceiving his own staff on purpose. However, this also allowed these staff officers to grow up quickly, allowing them to become an excellent staff officer and a qualified staff officer as soon as possible.

"How much is our loss?" Qiu Baoren asked.

And the chief staff officer replied: "If the loss is estimated, we probably lost a lot. According to the calculation, we will not have more than seven battleships left, and only the Sword-class battleship can survive. And other Sovereign-class battleships, maybe There will always be serious injuries or even sinking. As for the loss of the sailors on board, we are currently unable to deduce in detail. As for other cruisers, etc., our losses are also very heavy, and the remaining will not exceed half. As for the destroyer, if the destroyer goes to battle, I will It is also impossible to calculate. Because the vast majority of destroyers will not participate in such a large-scale decisive battle."

"How could the loss be so heavy?" Qiu Baoren was also a little nervous.

However, the chief staff officer said comfortingly: "Chief of staff, this is just a theoretical calculation. In fact, we may not lose that much. If the commander Linji made a good decision at that time, we might be able to save most of it. Even if we prepared properly, Then we can even keep most of the sailors. As long as we keep the sailors, we can form a fleet again. Although our battleships and cruisers are much more than their warships, in fact, the combat effectiveness we can exert is less than Very poor. It is even about half of the Japanese and Americans. Even once the battle lasts for more than five hours, our soldiers' ability to resist pressure and various coordination capabilities will also be severely reduced. In the end, it will inevitably cause serious combat effectiveness of our soldiers. In fact, the combat effectiveness is less than one-fifth of the initial combat effectiveness. However, the combat effectiveness of the Japanese and American navies can maintain about 60%. Therefore, the longer the battle is delayed, the more disadvantageous it is for us .”

"You mean, do you want us to make a quick decision?" Qiu Baoren asked.

"Yes, the sooner the battle ends, the better for us. Once the time is delayed, the combat effectiveness of our sailors will drop very badly. Our soldiers' ability to resist pressure and willpower are obviously not as good as those of the Japanese and American navies, so we can use the most It is the best way to deal with the enemy quickly. Once time is delayed, our navy will be more disadvantaged the further we go.”

"If we can ensure that the battle ends within two hours, then we may have a 70% chance of winning!" the chief staff officer replied.

But Qiu Baoren replied: "The Japanese are not fools, they should be very clear that the psychological quality of our navy sailors is far inferior to theirs, so they may use the procrastination formula, and then delay a decisive battle with us until our sailors' combat effectiveness is seriously reduced. The japanese will definitely know our weaknesses, so let's not place our hopes on the japanese for a quick fight with us. The japanese will use draggling tactics with us, and from what i know of the japanese, they will definitely be so prepared Yes. Since the more time is delayed, the more unfavorable it is to us, so what should we do?"

Everyone couldn't help being silent, because the Japanese would not fail to see this. Obviously, they would definitely know that the strength of the Taiwan Navy is not good, especially the quality of the soldiers. The longer the battle continues, the greater the gap in their combat power will be~www.mtlnovel.com~ That means that once the battle is delayed, the balance of victory will gradually favor Japan and the United States. If the battle can be resolved quickly, the possibility of the Taiwan Navy's victory is still not small.

"Chief of Staff Qiu, are we different? Since we can't directly defeat them with normal combat methods, then I have an idea, can we have a game of Tian Ji's horse racing?" Immediately, a staff officer suddenly thought.

"Tian Ji horse racing? How to play?" Qiu Baoren asked.

"Actually, according to the plan we made before, we used submarines and sword-class battleships as the last cards. According to the previous plan, our sword-class battleships and submarines were used last. As our Why should we use these two at the end? Since they are all going to be exposed anyway, why don’t we…” the staff officer replied.

"What do you mean?" Qiu Baoren asked.

"I mean so..." the staff officer replied.

"Oh? This is a good idea!" Qiu Baoren exclaimed suddenly. (To be continued.)